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**Technical Documentation for Humanitarian AI Systems in Uganda**

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## Overview

This framework provides a comprehensive approach to optimizing health supply chains in low-resource humanitarian settings. Developed by the International Foundation for Recovery and Development (IFRAD) under the Elrha Humanitarian Innovation Fund, it addresses the unique challenges of Uganda's health system where **89% of facilities experience unreliable connectivity** and infrastructure constraints directly impact medicine availability.

### Core Design Principles

| Principle                 | Implementation                                                   |
| ------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Offline-First**         | All critical functions work without internet connectivity        |
| **Human-in-the-Loop**     | AI provides recommendations; health workers make final decisions |
| **Infrastructure-Aware**  | Storage capacity treated as a hard constraint, not a variable    |
| **Paper-Digital Harmony** | System augments, not replaces, existing paper workflows          |

### Three-Tier Forecasting Architecture

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    CENTRAL DATA HUB                         │
│         National reporting & system integration             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
                              ▲
                              │ Periodic ETL
                              ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                   DISTRICT SERVICES                         │
│    Tier 2: Hierarchical Statistical Forecasting (HES)       │
│    Tier 3: Machine Learning Models (Random Forest/XGBoost)  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
                              ▲
                              │ Opportunistic Sync
                              ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                   FACILITY LEVEL                            │
│         Tier 1: Rule-Based Forecasting (Offline)            │
│              SQLite + AES-256 Encryption                    │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

### Key Baseline Findings

The framework directly addresses findings from the 2025 Baseline Assessment:

* **Storage-Stockout Correlation**: r = -0.695 (strong negative)
* **Connectivity Failure Rate**: 89% of facilities
* **Stockout Prevalence**: 100% of pilot facilities experienced stockouts
* **Maximum Stockout Duration**: 120 days at refugee-serving facilities

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## Documentation Structure

### Technical Specifications

* [System Architecture](/technical-specifications/system-architecture.md) - Distributed system design for offline-first operations
* [Predictive Demand Algorithm](/technical-specifications/predictive-demand-algorithm.md) - Three-tier forecasting methodology
* [Implementation Manual](/technical-specifications/implementation-manual.md) - Android-specific development guide
* [Offline Workflow](/technical-specifications/offline-workflow.md) - Interface design and data flow

### Integration & Standards

* [Integration Standards](/integration-and-standards/integration-standards.md) - Maturity model and system interoperability

### Operations

* [Decision-Making Library](/operations/decision-making-library.md) - Override protocols and use cases
* [Fraud Prevention Handbook](/operations/fraud-prevention.md) - Detection mechanisms and audit trails

### Ethics & Compliance

* [Ethical Guidelines](/ethics-and-compliance/ethical-guidelines.md) - Humanitarian AI principles

### Assessment

* [Value for Money](/assessment/value-for-money.md) - Quantified impact assessment

***

## Project Information

| Field                 | Details                                                       |
| --------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Lead Organization** | International Foundation for Recovery and Development (IFRAD) |
| **Funding**           | Elrha Humanitarian Innovation Fund (UK FCDO)                  |
| **Pilot Region**      | Karamoja and Southwestern Uganda                              |
| **Pilot Facilities**  | 10 (2 Regional Referral Hospitals, 8 Health Centers)          |
| **Phase**             | Phase 1 Pilot (July - December 2025)                          |

***

*Version 2.0 - Post-Validation Revision | December 2025*


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